What Are the Chances That Donald Trump's Gaza Initiative Will Succeed?
The militant group's conditional endorsement toward Donald Trump's Gaza agreement last Friday was received global support and is the nearest the two warring sides have got in two years to ending the conflict within the Gaza Strip.
How Near Is a Deal?
The Palestinian faction's qualified backing of the Trump plan is the closest mediators have got over the last several months to a comprehensive conclusion to the war inside the Gaza Strip. However, they remain far off from a deal.
The US president's twenty-point initiative to stop the war requires for Hamas free all hostages within 72 hours, surrender ruling power to an international body led by Donald Trump, and lay down its weapons. In return, Israel would step-by-step withdraw its forces from the Gaza Strip and release over one thousand detainees.
This agreement would also bring an increase of relief supplies to Gaza, parts of which are undergoing food shortages, and recovery financing to Gaza, which has been nearly completely destroyed.
Hamas only agreed on three items: the release of all hostages, the surrendering of authority and the pullout of Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip. The group declared the rest of the deal must be negotiated alongside other Palestinian parties, as it is a component of a unified national position.
Effectively, this means the group seeks further negotiations regarding the more difficult aspects of the US plan, particularly the request that it disarms, and a clear schedule on Israel’s withdrawal.
Where and When Will Talks Occur?
Delegates have traveled to the Egyptian capital to finalize details to narrow the differences between the two sides.
Negotiations will start on Monday and it is anticipated to yield outcomes in the coming days, whether positive or negative.
Trump shared an image of a map of Gaza last Saturday evening that showed the boundary to which Israeli troops should withdraw and said that if Hamas agreed to the terms, that the ceasefire would start right away. The US president is eager to conclude the conflict as it approaches its second anniversary and prior to the Nobel prize committee announces the recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize on 10 October, an issue that is an extensively reported preoccupation for him.
The Israeli prime minister stated an agreement to bring Israeli captives back home would ideally happen soon.
Which Differences Are Left?
The two sides have been cautious their positions heading into negotiations.
The group has consistently declined to give up its weapons during previous talks. It has given no word on if its stance has changed on this, even as it principally agrees to Trump’s plan, with qualifications. The US and Israel have made it clear that there is limited flexibility on the disarmament issue and are determined to bind Hamas with binding language in any plan going forward.
The militant faction also said it accepted surrendering power in Gaza to an expert-led governing force, as outlined by the Trump plan. But, in a statement, the militant group clarified it would accept a Palestinian technocratic governing body, rather than the global authority proposed by Trump in its plan.
The Israeli government has also tried to maintain the issue regarding its military pullout ambiguous. Only a few hours following the announcement of Trump’s plan in a joint press conference in Washington recently, the prime minister published a recording reassuring the Israeli public that soldiers would remain in most of Gaza.
Last Saturday evening, Netanyahu again repeated that troops would remain in Gaza, saying that hostages would be released as the Israeli military would stay “deep inside the strip”.
The prime minister's stance seemingly stands against the requirement in the US proposal that Israeli troops completely pull out from Gaza. Hamas will seek reassurances that Israel will completely leave and that if Hamas surrenders its arms, Israeli forces will not re-enter the strip.
Negotiators will have to close these gaps, obtaining clear, strict language regarding giving up weapons from Hamas. They must also show to the faction that Israel will genuinely withdraw from Gaza and that there will be global assurances that will force Israel to comply with the conditions of the agreement.
The disagreements might be resolved, and the US will undoubtedly push the two sides to achieve an agreement. Nevertheless, the talks have come near to a deal previously suddenly collapsing several times in the past two years, making both sides cautious of declaring victory before pen is on paper.