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During his 2024 presidential bid, the former president promised to steer clear of expensive and often disastrous overseas military interventions like the cases of Iraq and Afghanistan. This commitment was a key part of his isolationist “America first” platform. Yet soon after taking office, US forces carried out bombings in Yemen and Iran. Turning to the south, the president threatened to seize the Panama Canal. Currently, the Pentagon is getting ready for potential operations against alleged “terrorist” drug cartels deep inside Colombia and Mexico. Most urgent worry is a potential fresh White House effort to enforce regime change on Venezuela.

The Venezuelan Reaction and Rising Tensions

Venezuela's president, the nation's socialist strongman leader, claims that this campaign is already begun. He states that the US is waging an “undeclared war” against his country following several lethal attacks against Venezuelan boats in the high seas. Trump recently informed Congress that America is involved in “armed conflict” with drug cartels. He claims, without providing evidence, that the targeted boats were carrying drugs bound for the US – and that the Venezuelan leader bears responsibility. The administration has issued a multimillion-dollar reward for Maduro’s capture.

Latin American governments are nervously monitoring a significant US military build-up near Venezuela, featuring warships, F-35 fighter jets, an attack submarine and thousands of marines. These formidable resources are not very useful for anti-drug operations. However they could be deployed offensively, or else to support commando operations and bombing runs. On Thursday, Venezuela accused Washington of unauthorized entry by several F-35s. Maduro says he is preparing a state of emergency to “protect our people” in case Venezuela is attacked from the American empire.

Questioning the Motives Behind the Actions

What exactly is Trump up to? Narcotics trafficking is a serious problem – yet killing people arbitrarily on the high seas, although frequent and hard to hold accountable, remains illegal. Moreover, United Nations reports says the majority of the cocaine entering the US comes from Colombia, Peru and Ecuador, and is largely not trafficked via Venezuela. Trump, a former draft-dodger, enjoys playing the strong commander-in-chief. He is now trying to deport Venezuelan migrants, many of whom originally fled to America to escape sanctions he previously imposed. Experts suggest he covets Venezuela’s abundant oil, gas and natural wealth.

It’s true that the president and John Bolton, attempted to oust Maduro in 2019 in an event Caracas claimed an overthrow attempt. Additionally, Maduro’s 2024 re-election victory was broadly denounced as rigged. Given a free choice, the people would likely vote out him. And, opposing political beliefs play a role, too. Maduro, poor successor to his predecessor's Bolivarian revolution, is an affront to Trump’s dominant idea of a US-dominated the Americas, in which the 1823 Monroe doctrine rules again and neoliberal capitalism functions without restraint.

Lack of Clear Strategy

However considering his inept blundering on other key foreign issues, the most likely reason for the president's behavior is that, as usual, he lacks understanding about his actions – in Venezuela or Latin America as a whole. No strategy exists. He throws his weight about, makes impetuous misjudgments, fans fears of foreigners and bases policy based on if he “likes” other leaders. In 2019, when the Venezuelan leader on the ropes, Trump blinked. Now, full-scale military intervention in the country is still improbable. More likely is a heightened pressure campaign involving destabilization, sanctions, naval attacks, and aerial and special forces operations.

Far from weakening and isolating Maduro's government, the US could bring about the exact opposite. Maduro is already exploiting the crisis to seize dictatorial emergency authority and mobilize popular support behind nationalist calls for national solidarity. The president's bullying of other left-leaning regional nations – like Colombia – and overconfident cheerleading for rightwing populists in Argentina and El Salvador – is spurring pushback across the continent, too. Most governments detest the thought of a reversion to the bad old days of Yanqui meddling in the hemisphere.

Regional Backlash and Diplomatic Failures

The administration's attempt to employ trade penalties and sanctions to strong-arm Brazil to pardoning its disgraced hard-right president Jair Bolsonaro backfired spectacularly recently. Massive protests demonstrated in Brazilian cities to protect what they rightly saw as an attack on national independence and legal principles. Public support for the new president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, soared. Brazil is not, and will never become, a dependent state,” he stated. The Brazilian leader effectively told Trump, essentially, to back off. Later, at their meeting at the UN general assembly, the American leader retreated and was conciliatory.

The view of a great leap backwards in inter-American ties grows inevitably. “His administration sees the region mainly as a security threat, associating it with narcotics trade, organised crime and immigration,” an analyst cautioned earlier this year. “The US approach is essentially negative, favoring unilateral action and dominance instead of partnership,” she added, stating: Latin America is viewed not as a peer and more as a sphere of influence to be dominated in line with US strategic interests.”

Aggressive Officials and Escalating Rhetoric

The president's hardline advisers contribute to the problem: especially Stephen Miller, White House top aide, and Marco Rubio, an ex- lawmaker from Florida who is secretary of state and national security adviser. In his view, a longtime opponent of socialist rulers in Cuba and Nicaragua, Maduro remains a target. Justifying the naval strikes, he stated: Seizures are ineffective. The solution is when you blow them up … And it’ll happen again.” From the top US diplomat, this is quite a statement.

Long-term Consequences

The president's efforts to reprise the role of Latin American regional enforcer, copying former president Theodore Roosevelt – an interventionist frequent meddler – are backward-looking, dangerous and counterproductive. In the future, the main beneficiary will probably be Beijing, a growingly influential player, investor and leading member of the Brics group of nations. As the US burns its bridges globally, Trump is making China rise in influence.