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As global leaders assemble in the Brazilian Amazon for Cop30, it is vital to review our collective progress in cutting global greenhouse gas emissions.

In spite of 30 years of United Nations climate conferences, approximately half of the CO2 built up in the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution has been emitted after the year 1990. Incidentally, 1990 was the release of the First Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which verified the danger of human-caused global warming. While researchers prepare the Seventh Assessment Report, they do so knowing that their work remains eclipsed by political influences. Regardless of sincere attempts, the planet is remains dangerously off track to avert dangerous global warming.

Record-Breaking CO₂ Levels and Fossil Fuel Dependency

Latest figures show that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels reached a new peak of 423.9 ppm in 2024, with the growth rate from 2023 to 2024 jumping by the largest yearly increase since record-keeping started in 1957. Based on the Global Carbon Project, 90% of worldwide carbon dioxide output in 2024 originated from the combustion of carbon-based energy sources, while the remaining 10% was due to land-use changes such as forest clearance and wildfires.

Although the rise in carbon emissions from fuels in 2024 was driven by increased use of natural gas and petroleum—accounting for more than 50% of worldwide discharges—the use of coal also attained a historic peak, constituting 41%. In spite of Cop28’s global stocktake urging nations to transition away from fossil fuels, global strategies still aim to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than aligns with keeping global warming to 1.5C, with ongoing drilling of gas justified as a less polluting transition fuel.

The Mirage of Nature-Based Solutions

Rather than focusing on financial motivators to accelerate the elimination of carbon fuels, climate policies are heavily reliant on feelgood eco-positive approaches that aim to cancel out CO2 output by planting trees rather than cutting factory discharges. While conserving, expanding, and rehabilitating ecological absorbers like forests and wetlands is beneficial in itself, research has demonstrated that there is insufficient territory to reach the worldwide target of carbon neutrality using nature-based solutions by themselves.

Roughly 1 billion hectares—an area larger than the United States of America—is required to meet carbon neutrality commitments. More than 40% of this land would need to be transformed from existing uses like agriculture to carbon capture initiatives by 2060 at an unprecedented rate.

Although this ideal restoration could be realized, woodlands take time to mature and can burn down, so they cannot be considered as a quick or lasting CO2 retention method, particularly in a rapidly shifting climate. While extreme heat and aridity affect larger regions, these well-intentioned efforts could actually go up in smoke.

The Weakening of Natural Carbon Sinks

Research data indicates that about half of the carbon dioxide released each year stays in the air, while the remainder is absorbed by oceans and terrestrial systems. As the planet warms, these environmental absorbers are losing efficiency at capturing CO₂, meaning that more carbon builds up in the air, intensifying global warming. Transferring the mitigation burden onto the land sector simply relieves the fossil fuel industry from the urgency to cut pollution in the near future.

The Climate Liability and Future Generations

Reaching carbon neutrality by mid-century demands carbon dioxide removal (CDR), which currently depends largely on terrestrial methods to absorb surplus CO2 from the air. Emitting companies can easily purchase offsets to compensate for their emissions and continue with normal operations. Meanwhile, the energy imbalance caused by the combustion of hydrocarbons continues to further disrupt the Earth’s climate. Essentially, we are increasing our climate liability to our global account, passing on future generations with an unpayable liability.

To curb the magnitude and length of exceeding the Paris Agreement temperature goals, the planet eventually needs to surpass the balancing impact of net zero and begin to drawdown past carbon outputs to achieve a carbon-negative state.

The Political Distortion of Net Zero

According to the most recent data from the international carbon research group, plant-based carbon removal is currently capturing the equivalent of about five percent of annual fossil carbon dioxide emissions, while engineered carbon extraction accounts for only about one-millionth of the CO2 emitted from carbon sources. More generous industry estimates suggest around 0.1% of total global emissions. At the risk of sounding like a heretic, the policy twisting of net zero is a deceptive gap that takes focus away from the research-based necessity to eradicate the main source of our overheating planet—fossil fuels.

The Urgent Need for Concrete Action

While this scientific reality should dominate discussions at the climate summit, past events suggests that polite incrementalism and deference to politics will prevail. Ambiguous promises of long-term goals will keep on delay the pressing requirement for definite short-term measures. Unless policymakers have the courage to implement carbon pricing to bring the era of fossil fuels to a definitive end, we are adding more and more carbon to the atmosphere, compounding the physical catastrophe currently happening across the globe.

The dilemma we confront is straightforward: take real action to the evidence-based situation of our predicament or suffer the results of this profound moral failure for generations ahead.