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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It commonly acts as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the skipper who orchestrated the largest turnaround wins the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or just the biggest surprise.

However the latest race is distinctly different. The pool of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division champions fading and longtime also-rans ascending together. In an normal year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this wild and thrilling season, he's up against five other outstanding candidates.

This is how the ideal ballot should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to conjure big plays from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But this is not a normal season!

Where his case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

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