Daily Murders in Mexico Fall Thirty-Seven Percent During President Sheinbaum, According to Government Figures

The average count of per-day homicides each month in the country has dropped by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per recent official data. However, security specialists have cautioned that homicide data could fail to indicate enhanced countrywide stability.

Significant Reduction in Daily Figures

There was an average of close to 55 murders a day in last November versus roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the presidency in September of last year. This data was delivered by the chief of the country’s federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in murders that have been recorded during these past months is extremely significant,” Sheinbaum stated, adding that in November the smallest figure of murders were registered for any single November in the past 10 years.

Recent Context and Government Plan

Fierce organized crime internal conflicts, combined with the government’s highly militarised campaigns to take on the cartels, have led to Mexico’s homicide numbers escalate in the past few years. The rate peaked at a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the nation's national statistics office.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide rate over 4x greater than the US. However, murders have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has attributed her national security plan for an apparently steeper reduction in homicides in the current year.

At a news briefing in August, the President stated: “There is a strategy, there is monitoring of the strategy, and there is detailed tracking locality by locality in certain cases. The approach works. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The central pillars of the President's safety plan encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigative efforts.
• Increased cooperation between various agencies.

Expert Skepticism and Data Limitations

Nevertheless, public safety experts warned that focusing solely on murder numbers to paint a picture of peace was misleading. This is particularly true given the uptick in other crimes such as people going missing.

“That would be excellent information if this were a drop, but I think we must not just concentrate on the murder data and say: ‘Well then, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

As reported by the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total declined by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year relative to the identical period the previous year. But, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in certain states have surged by up to 200%.

“Statistics on murders is not reliable for assessing the situation of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the ability or the will to correctly identify and categorize remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on month-to-month means of everyday killings was additionally concerning because it might mask periods when there were notably elevated levels of murders.

“Relying on the daily mean makes spikes of violent crime less visible,” he stated.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Success

An area where the administration can point to the success of its security strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Almost 40,000 people were detained between October 2024 and this past November for high-impact offenses, per government data. More than 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tons of drugs confiscated.

“The former US president cannot claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s extremely politically profitable,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Frustration

However in spite of these measures, Mexico remains plagued by extreme violence, with several regions in the throes of cartel-related bloodshed. Last month there was a notable killing of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the last year.

A short time later, many thousands of youth demonstrated in Mexico City and across the country to voice their outrage at graft and cartel violence.

“The administration presents [data] in a way to construct a story of safety. From a political standpoint it’s extremely effective, socially it’s extremely debatable,” Vargas remarked.